In the prediction and forecasting of future events and occurrences, factors analysis is predicted in large part on either exploratory or confirmatory parameters. Factors analysis is a major way of dealing with measurement error through exploratory approach; where application software determines any underlying factors of subject matter or confirmatory approach in which Researcher/Analyst specifies the underlying factors by self.

These are reasons why many predictions are  a mere exercise in futility. However, the recent forecasting statements credited to the UN focal person on climate change;  Mr. Nura Jibo on impending flood in Jigawa state in general and Hadejia town, in particular is a call for concern on one hand while on the other hand, his advice is presumptuous to culture,  heritage  and  people  of  Hadejia  town.  I  say  this  because  there  are  numerous choices in proffering viable and  sustainable solutions to any magnitude  of impending flooding  than  the  relocation  of  an  ancient  town  such  as  Hadejia  which  have  been transformed into a town since 1808 AD.

Hadejia with a population of over a quarter million people occupies over 50,778 kilometer squares of an area situated in an internationally important ecological and sensitive zone. The town is with valuable economic activities such as a renewed cluster for production, processing and handling of many important agricultural  products like; sesame, wheat, millet, sorghum, rice and fish. It equally serves as an important collecting point for export crops as groundnuts and Hibiscus. Animals such as; cattle, goats, sheep, donkeys and Guinea fowl are reared in large volume in the town.

It is a known fact that Hadejia town lays squarely in the Hadejia river valley which the inhabitants  have  been  putting  to  positive  uses  as  providence  afforded  the  town  the opportunities. However, the warning of the impending flood is an old one and equally advocacy for viable and sustainable solutions based on both short and long term bases are neither new even though appropriate actions have not been taken on the parts of the stakeholders.

From  both  economic  and  technical  prisms,  the  option  of  relocation  of  Hadejia  town concerning impending alert of a flood is not an option based on the fact that different stages  of  remediation  approaches  known  to  universal  standards  of  tackling  large magnitude floods and its subsets have not been conducted nor exhausted in Hadejia river valley. In this regards, toward tackling the looming and catastrophic floods as predicted to   submerge   the   ancient   city   of   Hadejia,   the   following   approaches   are   the

recommendations  for  necessary  mitigations,  viable  and  sustainable  prevention  of  the impending disasters:

i)        Assessment of the Upstream Reservoirs Level of Utilization and Frequency of Spillage.

ii)       Assessment and Projection of the Effect of Hydro-climatic Data Variability

iii)      Assessment  of  the  Impacts  of  Upstream  Human  Activities  and  Foster Remediation Solutions

iv)      Assessment  and  Improvement  of  the  Carrying  Capacity  of  the  Major Rivers in the valley of the Hadejia

v)      Design and Construction of Flood Control and Diversion Structures at identified Strategic Locations in the tributaries of the valley

vi)      Design and Construction of Flood Control Dams at identified Strategic Locations

vii)     Massive   Tree   Planting   across   the   affected   areas   and   strategy establishment  of  Giant  star  grass  (Cynadon  dactylon)  to  mitigate  the possible occurrence of the predicted landslide.

viii)    Massive and comprehensive sensitization/enlightenment campaigns on the actions and in-actions of the populace residing in the areas.

It is evidently obvious that it might not be possible to completely eliminate flooding in this epoch of climate change and global warming occasioned by human activities, it is however, effectively possible through the above itemized eight (8) approaches outlined to  achieve  a  viable  and  sustainable  development  in  the  Hadejia  river  basin,  so  as  to preserve floodplains and meandering of the rivers flowing system in Hadejia tributaries. These approaches if implemented would decrease the outflow velocity of water from the catchment, increase water retention capacity of the Hadejia valley basin and significantly decrease the probability of flooding.

In   conclusion,   development   and   implementation   of   water   control   infrastructures, remediation of human-induced problems and the identified biological-based solutions can serve as viable and sustainable approaches to improve and optimize the resilience as well

as the ability of the Hadejia river basin in minimizing the projected flooding hazard and landslide  but  not  relocating  the  innocent  and  the  good  people  of  Hadejia  from  their ancestral land.

Mohammed Shu’aibu Abubakar

Professor of Agricultural and Environmental Engineering

For: Hadejia Emirate Foundation (HEF)

30th  March, 2021

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